Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.623907 2.137911 2.832133 3.862993 5.399034 7.679018e+00 1.147432e+01
2025-01-19 0.978923 1.448351 2.187568 3.503579 5.949425 1.068754e+01 2.177210e+01
2025-01-26 0.693275 1.131461 1.919852 3.580079 7.428660 1.742823e+01 5.342762e+01
2025-02-02 0.530486 0.945241 1.789121 3.884179 10.023199 3.260851e+01 1.828625e+02
2025-02-09 0.410319 0.787397 1.641127 4.107075 13.234616 6.302415e+01 8.802515e+02
2025-02-16 0.315597 0.642765 1.451555 4.114749 16.380654 1.185974e+02 7.056356e+03
2025-02-23 0.240986 0.513681 1.235727 3.881233 18.632073 2.072406e+02 1.680454e+05
2025-03-02 0.183121 0.403481 1.017318 3.457520 19.343841 3.218889e+02 1.763680e+09
2025-03-09 0.154621 0.356504 0.960049 3.659040 25.975622 9.153270e+02 NaN
2025-03-16 0.130585 0.312776 0.891356 3.764074 33.662874 3.024516e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.114362 0.285088 0.863349 4.087866 48.405904 2.206839e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 0.100345 0.259018 0.828088 4.360116 68.694526 6.217414e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.085273 0.225560 0.749560 4.267982 84.505544 3.585394e+09 NaN
2025-04-13 0.071226 0.191249 0.650992 3.895625 89.978891 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.062944 0.173333 0.614663 4.011533 123.537594 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.057271 0.162420 0.604604 4.388377 199.660022 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.051875 0.150827 0.585416 4.671273 313.969360 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.046348 0.137181 0.548833 4.699772 436.073924 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.040801 0.122025 0.496983 4.439902 507.521401 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.035443 0.106376 0.435897 3.951473 486.804084 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.032818 0.100464 0.426038 4.198859 820.540024 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.030217 0.093987 0.409865 4.331530 1308.755580 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.028407 0.090165 0.407615 4.724714 2785.860509 NaN NaN